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☆ As the market enters correction territory, don't blame the American consumer
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-29 | by ( Tim Mullaney | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +14 min

Amazon.com Inc | ReutersThe initial third-quarter report on gross domestic product showed consumer spending zooming higher by 4% percent a year, after inflation, the best in almost two years. How is this possible with interest rates on everything from credit cards to cars and homes soaring? But they were below expectations at electric-vehicle leader Tesla , which blamed high interest rates, and at Ford . "And as interest rates rise, the proportion of that monthly payment that is interest increases." At American Express , which saw U.S. consumer spending rise 9%, the mild surprise was the company's disclosure that young consumers are adding Amex cards faster than any other group.

Persons: Bill Ackman, CFRA, Sam Stovall, Ryan Marshall, Wells, Jackie Benson, Tesla, Elon Musk, GM, Mary Barra, Paul Jacobson, John Lawler, Musk, Brian Moynihan, Jeremy Barnum, Sachin Mehra, Zers, Guess they're, Stovall, chargeoffs, John Greene, Morgan Stanley, Ravi Shanker, Spirit, Sundaram, Ethan Allen, they've, Marc Bitzer, Arun Sundaram, Amanda Agati, there's Organizations: Amazon.com Inc, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, Coldwell, Ford, General Motors, GM, United Auto Workers, UAW, Cox Automotive, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, MasterCard, American Express, Discover Financial Services, JetBlue, Whirlpool, Amazon, PNC, Federal, Asset Management Locations: Shakopee , Minnesota, U.S, Covid, PulteGroup, Vermont

☆ The earnings and economic data shows the consumer is still in control of the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Tim Mullaney | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

Moody's says that consumer savings rates are rising after bottoming out in June 2022. "We still see it as a normalization, not a deterioration story when we talk about consumer credit.'' But consumer loan delinquency rates are at 2019 levels, and below any level ever seen before 2014, according to Federal Reserve data. At JPMorgan, mortgage credit quality is so solid that the bank reported no net chargeoffs in the second quarter. Overall, the Bureau of Economic Analysis says consumer spending on new vehicles rose $40 billion to $642.4 billion in the first half of the year, with most gains coming in the second quarter.

Persons: Brandon Bell, Arun Sundaram, haven't, Alastair Borthwick, Moody's, Scott Hoyt, Jeremy Barnum, it's, Barnum, David Fieldhouse, Hoyt, Sundaram, Horton, Goldman Sachs, Goldman Organizations: Chevrolet, Knapp, Getty, Amazon, Walmart, Home Depot, Bank of America, CFRA, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, JPMorgan Chase, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Federal, Wall, General Motors, GM, Ford, U.S, Toll, Pride Locations: Houston , Texas

☆ The coming commercial real estate crash that may never happen
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-09 | by ( Tim Mullaney | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

"There's a lot of headaches about calamity in commercial real estate," said Kevin Fagan, director of commercial real estate analysis at Moody's Analytics. But credit in commercial real estate has performed well until now, and it's far from clear that U.S. credit issues spreading outward from real estate is likely. Analysts raised concerns that developers might default on a big chunk of $3.1 trillion of U.S. commercial real estate loans Goldman Sachs says are outstanding. "We're well aware of the concentrations people have in commercial real estate," Powell said at a March22 press conference. But there are reasons to believe lending issues in commercial real estate will be contained, Fagan said.

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